US dollar hits weekly high against euro

The US dollar rose to a seven-day high against the euro and also gained against the Japanese currency in a surprise rally on better-than-expected US jobs data.

At 1000 (AEST) on Friday, the euro fetched $US1.4173 from $US1.4347 the late trading time in New York on Thursday.

The dollar also rose to 97.51 yen from 95.44 on Thursday.

The surge in the dollar came after government data showed the US unemployment rate fell to 9.4 per cent in July and job losses in the month narrowed to 247,000. The surge surprised some analysts.

The US currency has mostly been regarded as a safe haven unit sought by investors seeking cover against risk. But Friday's market action showed a shift in tone.

'The US dollar rallied in response to surprisingly strong nonfarm payroll results, which was surprising in that the currency has generally only traded as a 'safe haven' asset,' said Terri Belkas, currency strategist with Forex Capital Markets.

She said the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and US retail sales numbers the coming week 'will be important as a gauge of what will drive the US dollar going forward: economic data or risk appetite'.

Kathy Lien, director of currency research at Global Forex Trading, said the dollar rally on Friday 'looks like fundamentals may be finally impacting the dollar in a positive way meaning that good data is good for the dollar'.

With the greenback surging on Friday in line with US stocks that shot up to their best levels of the year after the much-awaited July jobs report, 'the negative correlation between them appears to have been drawn into question -- at least temporarily,' said Michael Woolfolk of the Bank of New York Mellon.

'Keep in mind that the standard model and historical precedent argues in favour of a positive, not negative, correlation between equities and the local currency,' he said.

'At some point in the recovery process this will happen.'

Woolfolk predicted that if the US economy began to lead the global economy out of recession, the dollar could benefit as it did in the wake of 1997-98 Asian crisis triggered by a regional currency meltdown.

'Consequently, the US dollar could benefit during the second half of 2009 from two scenarios: a faster than expected US recovery and a return to crisis conditions.

The Yen Returns to Favor

The yen returned to favor against a basket of currencies in the Asian session. There were rumors that funds from maturing US Treasuries owned by the Japanese was going to be repatriated, resulting in yen buying. This, combined with Friday's sell off in US equities, has caused the yen to strengthen to 94.80. It looks like the uptrend line in place since early July has been broken. Is the yen telling us that the rally in stocks since the middle of March is about to end? The Shanghai stock index had its worst week since February, down 6%, suggesting that influence of the Chinese stimulus package may be waning.

If we have a reversal in the USD/JPY, it looks like there may be more on the downside, perhaps to the 93/93.50 level. Should the market gives us a rally back to 95 today, let's sell the pair and put a stop above the down trend line at about 95.70.

Landmarks in 2009

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